Secure with Securitisation: Global Volumes Expected to Rise in 2025
-Dayita Kanodia (finserv@vinodkothari.com)
Despite global macroeconomic challenges, including persistent inflation, securitization volumes and ratings across most structured finance asset classes demonstrated remarkable stability in FY 2024. Strong housing markets bolstered credit performance in sectors like U.S. and Australian RMBS, while European housing markets faced concerns of overvaluation.
Overall, the performance of the securitisation market in FY 2024 was considered to be stable with a few exceptions of leveraged lending and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) which remained in focus for numerous reasons, including their elevated exposures to lower-rated obligors.1
This article delves into the securitization trends observed in FY 2025, analyzing the market’s performance and offering insights into future projections.
Global Securitisation Volumes for FY 2025
US
As of December 2024, the total US Structured Finance issuance reached USD 770 Billion. In this, the total RMBS issuance accounted for USD 137.9 Billion (17.9% of the total structured finance issuance). It may be noted that total RMBS issuance for FY 2023 amounted to USD 78 Billion, therefore leading to an increase of roughly 76% in the current fiscal year. Securitisation of Credit Card receivables accounted for about USD 20.6 Billion while auto loans accounted for USD 126.4 Billion.2
As per S&P Global, the total credit card ABS issuance will be about $33 billion in 2025 thus leading to a 60% increase from the previous year. It also estimates the total RMBS issuance to reach USD 160 Billion supported by home price appreciation and low unemployment rates.
The below chart shows structured finance issuances by sub-sector:
Traditionally, US data has excluded agency-backed transactions (the data above, therefore, would mostly be non-qualifying residential mortgage loans). SIFMA data shows that agency and non-agency RMBS issuance added to USD 1.592 trillion, registering an increase of 21%. This includes an increase of 119% in non-agency RMBS, and about 19% in agency-RMBS.
Yet another segment which is typically boosted by the benign credit conditions is CMBS. US CMBS volumes touched USD 103 billion [S&P data]. This is over 2.5 X of the volume seen last year.
European Market
European securitisation issuance in 2024 reached USD 142 billion, reflecting an over 50% increase compared to 2023.While fewer outstanding transactions in the European securitisation market are anticipated to hit their call dates in 2025, typically a factor that negatively impacts volumes; improvements in underlying credit originations offer a positive outlook3.
A highlight of 2024 was the record-setting bank-originated securitisations, which soared to a 12-year high of over USD 36 billion. Additionally, sustainable-labelled securitisation rebounded strongly, with issuances exceeding USD 5 billion during the year. RMBS volumes in Europe rose by approximately 60% to USD 46 billion, a trend likely to persist into 2025.
The below chart shows the RMBS and ABS issuance over last 3 years in the European market:
China
In China, new securitization issuances grew by 4.8% year-on-year to USD 200 billion during 1Q-3Q 2024. Issuances of consumer loan ABS and account receivables ABS saw noticeable growth and MSE loan ABS issuances surged by 76%. However, the issuance of certain major asset classes, such as auto loan ABS declined significantly (Auto loan ABS issuance fell 39% in 1Q-3Q 2024 to USD 11.83 billion. The number of transactions issued during the period dropped to 22 from 29 a year earlier).4
Consultation on Securitisation
A highpoint of the EU securitisation market in 2024 is the consultation by the European Commission to mend the regulatory framework for securitisation. This exercise was prompted by several positive noises about securitisation at a policy-makers’ level. Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister, in his report to the EU, made a strong case for securitisation. He said: “Securitization acts as a unique link between credit and capital markets. In this sense, the securitization market offers significant potential. Increasing its utilization brings two key benefits: i) broadening and diversifying the pool of assets available for investment, and ii) unlocking banks’ balance sheet capacity to facilitate additional financing. Moreover, the adoption of green securitization, whether through securitizing green assets or directing securitization proceeds towards green financing, holds promise as a significant contributor to the transition towards sustainability. Therefore, we advocate for reforms in the European securitization framework to enhance its accessibility and effectiveness”5 In addition, comments by Noyer and those by Mario Draghi favoured changes in securitisation framework. Thus, in October, 2024, the Eurpean Commission began a targeted consultation on several aspects of securitisation market. The responses from the consultation are currently available on the Commission’s website.
Surge in CLO market
One of the notable developments in 2024 was the surge in CLO volumes. US CDO/CLO issuance, as per SIFMA statistics, recorded an issuance volume of USD 85 billion, which is 195% higher than the issuance last year. European CLO volume registered a volume of Euro 46 billion, substantially higher than last year. One report, citing a BofA research, states that the global outstanding CLO volume reached nearly USD 1.2 trillion.
The growth in the CLO market is a direct result of the activity in the leveraged loan market, as the feedstock of CLOs primarily is leveraged loans. Leveraged loans, a term that is rather understood than defined, is mostly low-rated loans to entities that are already carrying significant leverage. The US leveraged loan market adds to upwards of USD 1.2 trillion, and that in Europe stood at about Euro 280 billion. Most of these leveraged loans tend to “syndicated” or downsold in pieces to various participating banks – which may number from a dozen to even 200, and hence, reflecting the extent of lender participation, this market is called “broadly syndicated loan” or BSL market.
While private credit financiers are increasingly making inroads into the space, a lot of capital in the leveraged loan market comes from CLOs.
Another interesting development in the US CLO market has been the growth of CLO ETFs. A report by S&P says that CLO ETFs’ AUM rose from USD 120 million in 2020 to USD 19 billion in Nov., 2024.
Regulatory updates
UK enacted the Securitisation Regulations, 2024, which replaced the earlier 2017 Regulations. Pursuant to the Regulations, the Financial Conduct Authority has framed the set of rules called Securitisation Sourcebook. The rules lay particular emphasis on the Simple, transparent and standardised (STS criteria) of securitisation transactions, and by way of amendments made later in the year, bar the domiciling of SPVs in certain high risk jurisdictions.
Growth in synthetic securitisation
Synthetic securitisation, also sometimes known as synthetic risk transfer or significant risk transfer (SRT) transactions, were mostly limited to Europe and SE Asia jurisdictions, due to lack of clarity on regulatory capital treatment in the USA. In Sept., 2023, the Federal Reserve board clarified that capital relief will be applicable in case of synthetic transactions. Since the clarification, US share in global synthetic securitisations grew to over 30%, from a small fraction earlier. The IMF Global Financial Stability Report of October, 2024 states that globally, more than $1.1 trillion in assets have been synthetically securitized since 2016, of which almost two-thirds were in Europe.
The said IMF report highlights several risks of SRT transactions. First of all, it states, basis anecdotal evidence, that banks are providing funding to credit funds for buying tranches of SRT deals of other banks, thereby implying that the risks are eventually within the banking system. It also states that SRTs may “mask banks’ degree of resilience because they may increase a bank’s regulatory capital ratio while its overall capital level remains unchanged.” Furthermore, overreliance on SRTs exposes banks to business challenges should liquidity from the SRT market dry up. Financial innovation may lead to securitization of riskier asset pools, challenging banks with less sophisticated tools for risk management, because some more complex products make the identity of the ultimate risk holder less clear. Finally, although lower capital charges at a bank level are reasonable, given the risk transfer, cross-sector regulatory arbitrage may reduce capital buffers in the broad financial system while overall risks remain largely unchanged.
Sustainable-labelled Securitisation
The European market saw an issuance exceeding USD 5 Billion during 2024 with first time issuances in solar ABS sectors.
In the U.S., government-sponsored enterprises are purchasing mortgage pools targeting low-carbon buildings and refinancing these assets in the mortgage-backed securities market to finance energy and water efficiency programmes6. For instance, in September 2024, Fannie Mae a GSE came up with a single family green bond framework. Under this framework, loans which conform to the eligibility requirements are acquired from lenders and are securitised into Fannie Mae MBS which are either delivered to the lenders or sold to investors. Here, only projects achieving certain environmental performance standards such as Solar Loans and water efficiency loans are eligible7
Indian Securitisation Market8
Securitisation volumes surged about 27% on-year to Rs 1.78 lakh crore in the first nine months of FY 24-25, supported by large issuances from private sector banks. In the third quarter alone, issuances touched Rs 63,000 crore with private sector banks contributing to 28% of this (HDFC bank alone securitised new car loans by issuing PTCs valued at just over Rs 12,700 crore). However, originations by NBFCs were only up by 5%. The market also saw 15 first time NBFC issuers, bringing the total number of originators to 152, compared with 136 in the last financial year.
Among asset classes, vehicle loans (including commercial vehicles and two-wheelers) accounted for 48% of securitisation volume (vs 40% in the corresponding period last fiscal).
Mortgage-backed loans accounted for about 23% of securitisation volume (vs 20% in the corresponding period last fiscal).
Overall, the Indian Securitisation Market volume is expected to reach Rs 2.4 trillion by the end of FY2025.
On the regulatory front, SEBI, in its board meeting dated December 18, 2024, approved amendments to the framework for the issuance and listing of Securitised Debt Instruments (SDIs). These amendments aim to expand the SDI market and align the regulations with the current securitisation norms prescribed for RBI-regulated entities.
This growth trajectory is expected to persist into FY26, fueled by strong securitization volumes and the expanding involvement of private sector banks. With evolving market dynamics and growing investor confidence, the securitization market is poised for sustained momentum for years to come.
- India securitisation volumes 2024: Has co-lending taken the sheen?
- Indian securitisation enters a new phase: Banks originate with a bang
- Securitisation: Indian market grows amidst global volume contraction
- https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101591938.pdf
↩︎ - https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101610419.pdf
↩︎ - https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/pdf-articles/easset_upload_file78691_3234527_e.pdf
↩︎ - https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101607929.pdf
↩︎ - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/ny3j24sm/much-more-than-a-market-report-by-enrico-letta.pdf
↩︎ - https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101604403.pdf ↩︎
- https://capitalmarkets.fanniemae.com/media/20626/display
↩︎ - Source – https://www.crisilratings.com/en/home/newsroom/press-releases/2025/01/securitisation-volume-up-27percent-in-nine-months-of-this-fiscal.html
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